Tom Noyes 质疑 BIS 关于稳定币与银行存款替代关系的研究,认为历史数据时期普遍存在分销商和 DeFi 提供的隐性收益,因此将稳定币视为纯零利息资产的核心假设值得怀疑。他指出,研究依据总市值而非用户行为调查来建模,可能误判资金变化;研究则发现,银行存款利率上升与稳定币增长放缓相关,且这一负相关在 USDC 上强于 USDT。
BIS Paper. https://www.bis.org/publications/working-paper-1382-are-stablecoins-and-bank-deposits-substitutes
The BIS study relies heavily on historical macro data from a period when hidden distributor- and DeFi-paid yields were widespread, making its core assumption that stablecoins act as purely zero-interest assets highly suspect. Consequently, because the authors tracked aggregate market capitalizations rather than surveying actual user behavior, the model may misattribute capital shifts and understate how severely the stablecoin sector will contract when regulatory acts enforce a true zero-yield environment.
The authors attempted to model this impact and found evidence that stablecoins and bank deposits act as partial substitutes, showing that higher bank deposit rates predict slower stablecoin growth. The negative relationship stronger for USDC than for USDT (due to US deposits). This suggests that bank deposit pricing can influence the size of the stablecoin sector, which could eventually impact bank funding conditions and monetary policy transmission.
Useful if you trust their models. But is any of this relevant when stablecoins now have no interest (or rewards)?
来源:Tom Noyes· x.com