BIS Paper. https://www.bis.org/publications/working-paper-1382-are-stablecoins-and-bank-deposits-substitutes

The BIS study analyzed historical data from January 2019 to June 2025—a period during which major payment stablecoins like USDT and USDC already paid zero interest directly to holders. The paper’s entire premise evaluates how stablecoins compete with banks when only the bank side adjusts its interest rates. Because the GENIUS Act codifies this zero-interest environment into federal law, the paper’s model serves as an accurate playbook for the post-GENIUS market.

The study found evidence that stablecoins and bank deposits act as partial substitutes, showing that higher bank deposit rates predict slower stablecoin growth. The negative relationship stronger for USDC than for USDT (due to US deposits). Findings suggest that bank deposit pricing can influence the size of the stablecoin sector, which could eventually impact bank funding conditions and monetary policy transmission.